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August 31, 2008

Comments

TGGP

Changing his mind on Veep choice would not look good at all. Never admit your mistake.

Are women really the majority of voters? I thought men voted disproportionately enough to make a majority. Women are also overrepresented among the elderly, who also vote disproportionately, though.

mitchell porter

Meanwhile, others are waiting for Palin to be replaced.

Hopefully Anonymous

TGGP, I don't think Obama's mistake was picking Biden. I think his mistake was picking before McCain. Even if Palin blows up as a pick, there's no way around the bad game theoretic strategy of picking first, as far as I can tell. [Full disclosure, I acknowledge Obama is smarter than me. But that nobody else has brought this point up is one of those regular economics of collective restraint data points that has be scratching my head about available models of reality.]

Also TGGP, there's not much to debate about who votes more. Women are clear and dominant voting majority. In every age group, too, not just the elderly. Not only are there more women, but they vote more than men do.

Hopefully Anonymous

This meme apparently has a little bit of distribution (232 hits on google):

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&safe=off&as_qdr=all&q=hillary++%22dump+biden%22+-%221+pm%22+-successful&start=0&sa=N

Hopefully Anonymous

More indication of a zeitgeist:

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDZhZDYzZGE3OTcwZGFkNThmZGRiYWUwYmViZWNhMmE=

Douglas Knight

Political advisors seem to be pretty conservative, eg, not in favor of Palin. There might be a principal-agent conflict encouraging that conservatism. Perhaps they expect to lose more for bad radical ideas than they would gain for good radical ideas, but it's not clear to me why that would be. Campaign advisors run so few campaigns, I'd expect it to be more like a lottery selecting lucky radicals who can claim to explain their success.

I think this is a pretty good explanation of why Obama isn't going to change his mind, even if I'm not sure how good an explanation of original vp picks it is.

Hopefully Anonymous

Data point.
The Obama campaign has been brilliant, but I think they're letting a risk fester with no good reason. No one knows for certain what millions of white women will do in the privacy of the voting booth. No one knows for certain how well Palin will perform. But one thing seems very likely to me: a more experienced woman as Obama's Veep would neutralize much of a potential Palin advantage/risk.

Here's evidence HIllary Clinton specifically would help Obama win against Palin if Obama selected her as his new Veep:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/woman_president_clinton_vs_palin_52_to_41

Hopefully Anonymous

Also the Palin speech tonight would be a good time for Obama to announce a female Veep and that Biden's moving to Secretary of State.

Then he could go on O'Reilly with that Veep tomorrow night. As a credentialist snob I like both Sebelius (MPA) and Hillary Clinton (Yale Law).

Athough really, a JD, MPA honors grad from a top school (or the very top of one's class at the best public university for one's state) is the academic background I'd want for a President or Veep. Also at least 4 years as the governor of a fairly big state.

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