Hopefully Anonymous

Should Obama move Biden to Secretary of State and Pick a Female Veep?

http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2008/08/is-sarah-palin.html#comments

"I agree with some that Palin has the potential for killing the Obama campaign (if she shows she can perform well at the national level). Frankly, security moms might break for McCain in significant margins, and the dirty secret is that women are already a strong voting majority. For that reason, the Obama campaign might be wise to consider shuffling Biden to Secretary of State position -so he won't put up a fight about losing Veep- and bringing in Hillary Clinton as their new Veep selection (alternatively another female with a longer resume than Palin, like Sebelius).

The ideal time for them to do that might be at an opportune moment during or shortly after the Republican convention.

Posted by: Hopefully Anonymous at Aug 30, 2008 5:24:05 PM"

[I grade this post an F in terms of helping me understand reality to maximize my persistence odds.]

Jonah Goldberg provides good political horse race analysis

The Palin/Obama discussion has mostly been an empiricism-free battle of myths. Here I think a commentator actually gives some good analysis of both. Other than one partisan line (that he thinks McCain's judgment is superior to Obama's) I think his analysis of this political horse race hits the mark.

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=N2NjY2FmN2RhOGE0MTIzMjlhZjU3YTBmY2NlYTYwYTA=

[I grate this post an F in terms of helping me understand reality to maximize my persistence odds]

Vinger's cop-out in latest NY Times interview

I thought Rainbow's End was a great novel (I blogged about it earlier here) and I think this interview is good but I think he cops out at the end with a weak suggestion for how humanity might be preserved by post-singularity intelligences. I think it's more likely we will be viewed the way a semiconductor manufacturer views silicon sand, a natural resource that can be made more efficient for its own ends through engineering.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/26/science/26tier.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Some brain science and social psychology podcasts

An NPR interview with a social psychologist on persuasion. A few useful gems in it.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=93872977

A high quality brain science blog by a femal physician. Lots of podcasts and interviews in it.

http://www.docartemis.com/docartemis2007/

[I grade this post an A- in terms of helping me understand reality to maximize my persistence odds.]

A bunch of free, legal, online math textbooks

They've got pretty much all the basics. very strong on the type of math you need for mathematical finance.

http://matrifriends.rediffiland.com/blogs/2008/08/22/SEEMATHS-4-1-1.html

[My rating for how much this post helps me understand reality to maximize my persistence odds: A-]

66 Personal Productivity Blogs

66 Personal productivity blogs:

http://www.lifehack.org/articles/productivity/readers-recommend-15-more-productivity-blogs-you-probably-never-heard-of.html

[Grade of post in helping me understand reality to maximize my persistence odds: A]

Random Slate Piece with a High Mythmaking to Empiricism Ratio

This Nate DeSilo (name's from memory, check the piece if I got his name wrong) slate piece has a high mythmaking to Empiricism Ratio, in my opinion. I think the primary myths here are the myths of generational progress, the myth of equal ability across population, as well as the normative proposition that attempts to study differences in ability across ethnic populations should be tabooed. He only promotes the myth of generational progress explicitly, the other two seem to me to be promoted through framing.

I advocate that author's reputation and status be downgraded, for nontransparently promoting myths over empiricism.

The slate piece:

http://www.slate.com/id/2197635

[My grade for this post's contribution to my attempts to understand reality to maximize my persistence odds: D]

Lucidity on the brink of death from infectious disease: a new york times science article

Interesting story from a doctor about lucid patients on the brink of death from freak infectious diseases.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/19/health/views/19case.html?_r=1&ref=science&oref=slogin

The one with gas gangrene was caught completely by surprise, the other, with sleeping sickness from an African Safari took needless risks with their life, the article seems to me to imply.

For me it's a good reality check. We feel more or less invinceable these days, but here, on the possible brink of solving biological mortality, there are lots of things afoot that can take us out of the race.

[I rate this post a B+ in terms of helping me understand reality to maximize my persistence odds]

Dreams may be threat simulations/predictions, and not very good ones either

Hat tip originally marginalrevolution, but I think the actual study is more interesting than  how that blog framed it:

http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~content=a788216900

I intuit that dreams may be less threat simulations than threat predictions, which may be why we're predisposed to treat them as such. After all, the best very simple algorithm to predict the future, may be "what happened last time". BUT, like so much in our klugey, adaptive mind, dreams may not be great predictors compared to our other resources. (1) They overpredict threat levels, and (2) we often have better predictive algorithms than "what happened last time".

[usefulness of this post for understanding reality to maximize my persistence odds: B-]

How to reduce "presentation of self" skews of analysis of my blog

 I'm thinking I could select a group of 8 good analyzers, then randomly pick 4 of them to try to discuss my blog and how I can best reach my goals, in two different two person anonymous chats. Then I can give an additional financial prize to the chat that I thought did a superior job. This could reduce presentation of self/performance skews in the analysis of my blog.

[I grade this post an A- in terms of helping me attempt to understand reality to maximize my persistence odds.]